Climate Change Linked to National Security : Now the major players can act

Climate Change Linked to National Security
By PAMELA HESS
June 25, 2008



Global warming is likely to increase illegal immigration, create humanitarian disasters and destabilize precarious governments in political hot spots, all of which could affect U.S. national security, according to an assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies.

Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Central and Southeast Asia are most vulnerable to warming-related drought, flooding, extreme weather and hunger. The intelligence assessment warns of the global impact from the spillover: increased migration and "water-related disputes," according to prepared remarks by Tom Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, who was scheduled to speak before a joint House committee hearing.

"We judge that the most significant impact for the United States will be indirect and result from climate-driven effects on many other countries and their potential to seriously affect U.S. national security interests," Fingar stated.
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The national intelligence assessment on the national security implications of global climate change to 2030 is one of a series of periodic intelligence reports that offer the consensus judgment of top analysts at all 16 U.S. spy agencies on major foreign policy, security and global economic issues. Congress requested the report last year.

The assessment deals with the projected effects of climate change, and not just the negative ones. It predicts modest improvements in agricultural yields in North America and more water resources in South America. It predicts that most U.S. allies will have the means to cope economically. Fingar says, however, that unspecified "regional partners" could face severe problems.

Fingar states that the quality of the analysis is hampered by the fact that climate data tend not to focus on specific countries but rather on broad global changes.

Africa is among the most vulnerable regions, the report states. An expected increase in droughts there could cut agricultural yields of rain-dependent crops by up to half in the next 12 years.